Using PREDICT to assess prognosis

I wondered if anyone else was aware of this tool.

I'm 5 months post mastectomy for Grade 1 Stage 1 IDC and DCIS in my right breast.  Her2 - Oestrogen +.  I've had no other treatment apart from Tamoxifen.  I haven't had much in the way of side affects apart from insomnia and hot flushes.  I do worry about clot risk though.

At my review meeting with my surgeon she presented me with data on my prognosis using PREDICT.  I've never heard of this before.  I was pleased to read that I have a 93% chance of being around in excess of 10 years and that 6% equates to dying from other causes!

Shockingly, taking Tamoxifen will only increase that percentage by 1%.  Even chemotherapy (which I haven't had) only increased the prognosis by 1% as well.
 

These stats really surprised me.  I've been taking the Tamoxifen religiously and even panicked about missing one dose as I'd run out at the end of my holiday.  It was my understanding that it was critical to take it to prevent recurrence but these stats appear to contradict this.  I'd be too scared to stop taking it, but is it worth the risks?  I'm reading a lot about research suggesting that Tamoxifen and the aromatase  inhibitors should be taken for 10 years and not 5 to prevent recurrence and have better outcomes, but this all seems contradictory to me.

Anyone else have any thoughts about this or experience?  Thanks

Mary

  • Hi marywj

    I am very similar to you. I had a Grade2 ( but slow growing) 8mm screening dected IDC. Stage 1 and no spread and no associated DCIS. Just a nasty little pea sized IDC.  One op 5 sessions of radio now 5yrs of Anastrozole as I'm ( very) post menopausal as I went through that at 46 and I'm now 57. 

    Predict shows similar stats to you in that my estimated survival according to Predict sits 1/2% below that of someone who didn't have BC at 5. 10 and 15yrs. The hormorne therapy at best gives me a 2% benefit over 15yrs but minimal at 5years and marginal at 10years.

    It's good in one way that the predictions are positive but frustrating that the benefits of hormone therapy seem so low in actual survival terms with all the cr*p that comes with taking them. I get stiff and painful joints. But for me the driver is that hormone receptive breast cancer can come back 20+ years later but is often slow growing so my theory is sticking with this maximises my chances that it doesnt return within my normal lifespan as I don't want to go through this again!

    Also if it does return, I'll know I did everything I could to prevent it. However, if the joint issues become unbearable I'll know the implications of stopping. I don't get any follow up appointments since my treatment ended in Feb as my area does patient led follow up so I will just have my annual mammograms

    It's tricky I agree. Hope you manage OK on tamoxifen  xx

  • Hi Dorestgirl,

    Thats very interesting and we do seem to be very similar in terms of grade and stage.  I've since learned that my IDC was tubular and that too can be a positive (if there is a positive in this s--tshow that is BC)!  It's very unlikely to spread apparently. 
    I've been very worried that I'd had so little treatment as, like you, I wanted to throw everything at it in the here and now to prevent recurrence.  I've since learned that it doesn't quite work that way and the most proactive and successful procedure (according to Predict) for a good outcome was the surgery alone (in my case anyway).  Surprising isn't it!  That in itself gives me some reassurance that I chose the full mastectomy over WLE.  Although both procedures are equally effective, I was worried about radiotherapy if I had the WLE.  It's not needed after mastectomy in most cases.

    My surgeon told me that worldwide, breast cancer treatment varies a lot and there is some thinking that chemotherapy is overused, especially in USA, although of course everyone's experience and treatment will be different, and I suppose the opinions of surgeons too.

    I'm 8/8 oestrogen + so despite slow growing it's a risk for late recurrence, even 20+ years ahead.  I'll take that as I'm 55 so I'm happy to stick with the Tamoxifen as I wasn't quite menopausal.  I'm so sorry to hear that you're having joint issues with with your hormone therapy and I hope it's bearable for you.  I'm worried about switching over from Tamoxifen in two years time and I'm wondering, given the stats, if I will be able to just stay on the Tamoxifen indefinitely as it seems to suit me reasonably well.  I'll see how things go.

    Thanks for replying and wishing you all the best.

    Mary x
     

  • is this PREDICT something we can access online?

  • Hi there, I had 19mm IDC last September. WLE and 5 days radiotherapy was my treatment. I did the NHS predict and similar to others on this thread, it's 1 or 2% benefit for taking hormone therapy. I've declined them as I have joint problems now with painful knees and feet, I don't want that to worsen. I'm not sure if I've made the right decision so seeing the onco again in September to give them a try. I don't want to go through this again, either but if Im affected negativly I probably will stop them. Quality of life is important too. I'm 56 btw. Hope you ladies are all doing ok. I feel great at the mo. Love Jane xx
  • Yes, just search nhs predict and you will find it. I would suggest you discuss results with your Oncologist though as it doesn't cover all circumstances for breast cancer for example if you have more than one tumour or dcis and invasive etc

    best of luck Mickey xx ️

  • Thank you. I didn't know it is only for breast cancer. Because of it, I did find something similar for colorectal cancer too. Yes, they all come with the disclaimer to discuss it with your oncologist. 

  • Hi, I'm glad you found something similar for colorectal cancer too. All the best ️

  • Hi there,

    I was given my predict score by my oncoplastic breast surgeon and she discussed fully with me the score.  I think it's very important to have this information in tandem with the Drs because even minor alterations to information submitted can affect the score.  
    It did help me because it pointed out that my prognosis was good and helped me put things in perspective.  I would br worried if anyone used it to self diagnose or make any changes to medication without full input from the Drs.  
    Sometimes I feel us having too much information just causes us more hassle, confusion and anxiety, and whilst it's good to ask questions, I've learned that it is also good to trust the Drs who are doing their very best for us.

    Wishing everyone well on their journeys

    Mary x