Dad stopped treatment - we're trying to get a prognosis but can't get a straight answer

Hello, 

I'm struggling to get a prognosis for my dad from anyone.

My 76 year old dad has stage IV oesophageal cancer. He had a successful oesophagectomy in April 2024 and has never had any issues with eating or swallowing etc so had a normal bmi.

Fast forward to Oct 2025, he lost some weight and liver metastases were found, although only small. He started chemotherapy and immunotherapy in late December and managed 5 rounds over 15 weeks. Unfortunately he ended up in hospital due to side effects pretty much straight away after the last 3 rounds with a temperature, very low BP and low blood o2. He has decided with our full support to stop all treatment as his bmi has massively dropped to 15.7 as his appetite and taste have been non existent.

There are now metastases in his bones and lung. He is sleeping alot of the day and has lost nearly 1 stone in less than 4 weeks. My mum has asked his oncologist how much time dad may have statistically but wasn't given a straight answer. 

I realise you cannot give a personal prognosis for him but could you provide some statistics based on the information I have supplied please? We just need to prepare ourselves mentally. 

Thank you 

  • Hello and thank you for posting.

    I am so sorry to hear about dad and can understand you wanting to know more about his prognosis (how long he has left) . As we are not his doctors or part of his team we are unable to give an answer. There are also not statistics available for this type of information. However, what I can say is it sounds like from what you describe that dad is incredibly poorly now. Sleep becomes more and more part of his day and his interest in everything including food and drink will reduce further. Marie Curie have some information about the different stages of dying which will be upsetting but useful to read.

    Usually doctors are able to give an idea by saying things like weeks to short months, or days to weeks, but it can be hard to give more than this. If dad is at home I would expect him to have a palliative care or Macmillan team that come to visit him at home. They are experts in patients like your dad so would be the best people to ask how they feel he is doing. If you do not think dad has a palliative care team then do get a referral to them from his GP or oncology team. Sometimes the district nurses, if he has them, can also do this.

    I think you all need to prepare yourself now that time is short for dad, as his periods of time awake will be reducing. We have more information for the friends and family at this time if helpful to read. We also have a chapter about dying with cancer that might answer some more of your questions, although it will be painful to read.

    Take care and if you want to talk things through with a nurse you could call our helpline on 0808 800 4040. Lines are open Monday -  Friday, 9-5.

    Sarah.